World Cup 2026 Group F Preview: Netherlands, Japan, Sweden, Tunisia
Group F is the dark horse for "most entertaining group". The Netherlands have title aspirations. Japan have arguably the deepest squad outside Europe. Sweden return after missing 2022. Tunisia are the spoiler. Three of these teams could realistically advance.
The teams at a glance
- Netherlands — FIFA #7. 2010 finalists. Oranje preview.
- Japan — FIFA #18. Beat Germany and Spain in 2022. Japan preview.
- Sweden — FIFA #38. Returning after missing the 2022 World Cup.
- Tunisia — FIFA #44. African qualifier with a hard-running, low-block style.
Netherlands: the favorites with a real ceiling
The Dutch have one of the better squads in the tournament: Virgil van Dijk anchors the defense, Frenkie de Jong runs midfield, Cody Gakpo and Xavi Simons supply creativity, and Memphis Depay still has finishing in the box. Ronald Koeman has built a structured 4-3-3 that plays through the lines.
The Netherlands should win Group F comfortably. The bigger question is the knockouts — they've historically been a 1/4 to 1/2 final team that doesn't quite break through. For Group F purposes: chalk pick at 1st with 7+ points.
Japan: the most-improved team since 2022
Japan beat Germany and Spain in the 2022 group stage. Their 2026 squad is even better. Takefusa Kubo (Real Sociedad), Kaoru Mitoma (Brighton), Wataru Endo (Liverpool), Hidemasa Morita (Sporting), Daichi Kamada (Lazio), Junya Ito — the entire core plays in top-five European leagues. The depth chart is the deepest Japan has ever had.
Realistic ceiling for Japan: topping the group. The floor is 2nd place and a comfortable Round of 32 spot. They are the single best value pick at 2nd in default pools and a legitimate dark horse to make the quarterfinals.
Sweden: rebuilt around Isak and Gyökeres
Sweden missed the 2022 World Cup, but the Alexander Isak (Newcastle) + Viktor Gyökeres (Sporting) combination gives them an attack as good as any in this group. Dejan Kulusevski links midfield to attack. Defensively the squad has questions.
Sweden's realistic outcome: 4 points and a 3rd-place finish. They'll beat Tunisia, take a draw or close loss to Japan or Netherlands, and be in the wildcard conversation with positive goal difference.
Tunisia: the spoiler with low-block discipline
Tunisia are organized, hard-working, and tactically disciplined. Wahbi Khazri retired but the squad still has Hannibal Mejbri (Burnley) and Aïssa Laïdouni (Union Berlin) running midfield. Defensively they will compete with anyone.
The problem: scoring. Tunisia struggle to break down structured defenses. Realistic finish: 4th place, 1-2 points. Best-case scenario is a 0-0 with Sweden and a 1-1 with Japan — which would still leave them short of advancing.
Predictions
- 1st: Netherlands — squad depth and tactical structure.
- 2nd: Japan — closer to top spot than the FIFA rank suggests.
- 3rd: Sweden — Isak and Gyökeres are a real wildcard threat.
- 4th: Tunisia — defensively credible, but the goals don't come.
Bracket strategy for Group F
- Picking Japan over Netherlands for 1st is the most interesting upset bonus play in the tournament. Japan have beaten Germany and Spain at recent World Cups — Netherlands is not on a different tier.
- Sweden as a wildcard is a strong contrarian play. Most pool fillers will pick stronger groups' 3rd-place teams. Sweden's attack gives them a real edge in tiebreakers.
- Don't overrate Tunisia. They will frustrate but not advance.
Make your Group F picks
Lock your group standings and wildcard picks before the first kickoff on June 11.